Britain is experiencing some unusually snowy weather. But here’s a funny thing, last year we had unusually snowy weather too. I’m wondering when the unusual started to become usual. Or maybe it isn’t. Maybe it’s just two unusual years in a row. (Historical data on white Christmasses from the Met Office here.)
There were worrying mutterings that this was all due to the Gulf Stream shutting down, like in the (rather daft) movie The Day After Tomorrow. I tried to find some credible scientific corroboration of this, but have had no luck so far. Maybe someone with more Googling patience than I would like to look into it and let us all know.
I’m very wary of falling into the trap of confusing climate with weather. It’s too easy to label anything out of the ordinary as a doom-laden harbinger of climate change. Climate change is of course about long term rises in global average temperatures, and has to be distinguished from the idiosyncrasies and natural variations in the weather from year to year. It’s about long-term trends, not short-term anomalies. A sequence of white Christmasses does not mean that climate change is real, but it doesn’t mean it’s not real either.
Again, I’m trying to find some hard data coupled with some interpretation from a real expert. As with the Gulf Stream rumour, I’d appreciate any credible sources you can suggest.
Meanwhile, the upside of all this snow is that England is looking tremendously pretty and Christmassy. The downside is that heavy snowfall still comes as a great surprise to us so everything has ground to a halt. My general view is that we live in uncertain times, so it’s best to be prepared. If I had a home, I’d be buying a shovel. And cutting down my CO2 emissions, just in case.
Happy Christmas!
Useful links:
Casting doubt on reports in media
Most scientifically sound story
Hey Birthday girl!
Happy birthday and cheers to a wonderful and productive 2011!
Bruce
Yes indeed, again, “Happy Birthday, Roz”.
(Please don’t call “deniers” those of us who are skeptical of an anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Those scientists who concealed unwelcome data are the “deniers” and computer models can suggest whatever the designers choose.)
Happy Birthday and Merry Christmas. Enjoy the snow regardless of the reason it is there.
Looking forward to 2011.
Brent
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU AND A MERRY CHIRSTMAS. ITS NICE THAT YOU COULD BE HOME FOR CHIRSTMAS.
LEONARD
Hope your birthday was revelatory and sweet. Have a happy Christmas and may all your wishes come true!
Chris
Hope you had a great birthday and that you have a lovely Christmastime. I’m missing the snow in England, but I’m glad I wasn’t involved in all the flight chaos. Jony (in SF).
Happy Birthday, Roz, I hope you have a wonderful and peaceful Christmas and a Happy New Year. Safe travels, Bonnie
Was just in San Francisco with my family. We walked by the outside of the Dolphin Club where you gave a talk a few months back. We walked (and the kids of course ran wild on the beach and much too near the breakers) along Baker Beach on the Presidio with an incredible view of the Golden Gate Bridge and the open Pacific Ocean. Standing there looking out over the immense ocean, it’s quite awe inspiring to think that you (and others in the past) rowed such small little boat across such a big ocean. This is where your successful Pacific crossing started. May you also enjoy similar safety and success with your Indian Ocean expedition. Our hearts are with you.
-Bruce