Rick Shema, Weatherguy.com
For archived weather forecasts of this voyage, please see Pacific Row
© 2007 All Rights Reserved, Weatherguy.com, use authorized with credits

Roz has postponed her attempt to become the first woman to row across the Pacific Ocean and for good reasons. Several weather related considerations were stacking up against a successful row during a late August to September departure. Some of the historical and observed weather features that factored in to her decision are discussed below.

1. If Roz restarted in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands, the wind and sea conditions at the expected time of the restart were building to near 25kts and seas to 9 ft. A northwesterly direction would push Roz southeasterly due to limited steerage and maneuverability of Brocade in those conditions. Roz would have made landfall somewhere near Pigeon Pt in about two days time.

2. Eastern Pacific High pressure which normally provides trade winds from about 130W to Hawaii has been very finicky this summer. The high center has been situated well west of normal. Although some high centers have been centered further east, they have been weak and easily disrupted. This resulted in increased variability in wind patterns and indicates an added dose of uncertainty to forecasts longer term. The trend continues.

3. A late summer start means Roz would be transiting during the fall season. Fall transition into winter has a higher probability of gale force conditions than summer. These gales are associated with migratory low pressure systems accompanied with cold fronts moving further south and are more frequent. It is estimated four to five of these systems would come into play during her transit. This is in addition to the gale she experienced last week.

4. Tropical Cyclones: August and September months are the height of the tropical cyclone season. The tracks of tropical cyclones late in the season are more westerly towards Hawaii. As of this writing two tropical storms are over the North East Pacific Ocean. Although encountering a tropical cyclone is unlikely, in any future crossing attempts a contingency plan should be clearly identified in case one should happen her way. Otherwise, the outcome may be disastrous.

Weather forecasts will resume, when Roz sets a date for a restart next year. Stay Tuned!

End of Report