Rowing an ocean carries a certain element of risk, but it is possible to mitigate this risk substantially through careful planning and preparation.

Getting away from the California coast is going to be by far the most hazardous part of the voyage. The winds and currents generally sweep parallel to the coast, from north to south – apart from by the Golden Gate Bridge, where the wind often blows onshore, which is not good news for a lightweight but bulky ocean rowboat trying to head west.

So the timing of my departure is critical.

The tides are most favourable between 11th and 13th July. If wind conditions permit, the two optimum departure times would be:

Wednesday 11th July at 2317 (max ebb tide 4.9 knots)
Friday 13th July at 0011 (max ebb tide 5.5 knots)

But there are many other factors to add into the equation. These are the other factors, and what I have done to try and work them to my advantage..

1. Tide: a strong ebb tide gives up to 5 knots of extra speed under the Golden Gate Bridge. The objective is to leave as early as possible on an outgoing tide, to make the most of this window of opportunity.

2. Departure point: I will leave from the Presidio Yacht Club, which is located almost underneath the Golden Gate Bridge at its northern end. This gives me the shortest possible distance to travel to exit under the gate, and also means that I will benefit from a peculiarity of San Francisco tides – when the tide is in full flood, there is already a small outgoing current close to the north shore. This means that I can leave from the Presidio Yacht Club while the tide is still on the flood, and hence make the most of the subsequent ebb.

3. Speedy departure:I then need to make as much headway as possible in the 6 hours before the tide turns. The further I can get from land, the less the effect of the incoming tide, and the more margin I have between me and the shore. The effect of the tide is negligible once I get about 15 miles from the Golden Gate Bridge.

4. Wind – usual patterns: there is almost no chance of getting an offshore wind, although if I am very lucky a low pressure may form further down the coast and create these conditions. Regardless of this, the best time to leave will be in the middle of the night, when the wind usually drops and there may even be a slight offshore breeze as the land cools.

5. Wind – the forecast: for a month or so before my intended departure, I will collate and analyze information relating to wind conditions and wave height. This data is provided by a NOAA weather buoy located 18 miles west of San Francisco. I will plot the results and look for indications that the weather is entering a period of extended calm conditions, ideally 4 or 5 days, to allow time for me to get away from land.

6. Weather signs on the day: I am reliably informed (by Gordon Nash) that it is a good sign if it is breezy in the bay (which is subject to the funneling effect of the bay entrance under the Golden Gate Bridge) – outside the bay it is likely to be calmer. A low fog is also a good sign.

7. Longer term – hurricanes: there is no point in getting away safely, if I then run slap-bang into the hurricane season. Statistically, late summer is when this happens – see this link for the Eastern Pacific (just outside of San Francisco) and this link for the Central Pacific. But looking at the tracks of these hurricanes, they mostly happen below 10 degrees north – a long way south of where I intend to be.

8. Visibility: the drawback to leaving in the middle of the night is that I am less likely to see shipping, and they are less likely to see me. For this reason I will contact the US Coast Guard for an update of incoming and outgoing shipping on the night of my departure. They will then alert shipping to my presence.

9. Currents: I am being advised by Jeffrey Paduan of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, who is an expert on currents off the California coastline. I will check in with him before departure to find out if there are any unusual eddy systems that may affect my route. I will also be keeping an eye on this website, which shows the trajectories of surface currents: http://cencalcurrents.org/SFB1_Traj.shtml

10. Radio contact: I will have two VHF radios - one tuned to Channel 14 to listen in on the vessel traffic situation. The other will be tuned to Channel 13 in case I need to hail the bridge of a ship to alert them to my presence.

11. Media: by separating the "ceremonial" launch from the actual departure, I hope to avoid potential delays caused by requests for photos and interviews.

And as if all this wasn't enough to take into consideration, the first 30 or so miles of my row takes me through the infamous Red Triangle, a section of the California coastline where attacks by Great White Sharks happen more frequently than in any other comparable area on Earth. So I really don't want to go swimming early on...

With a lot of planning, and a fair old chunk of luck, I might get away from the coast first time - or I may share the fate of Mick Bird and Erden Eruc.